Executive summary
Market regime: RISK-ON composite score +0.36 (scale −1 to +1)
Posture: Conditions favor staying invested: full equity weight, buy pullbacks in leaders, keep stops in place.
- Money flowing in: Crude Oil +0.17, Silver +0.14, Gold +0.09. Flowing out: Bitcoin -0.10, Long Treasuries -0.08, 7-10y Treasuries -0.05.
- Strongest markets: South Korea +109.2%, Taiwan +85.7%, Brazil +56.4%. Weakest: Vietnam -15.1%, China -16.1%, Indonesia -31.7% (USD returns).
- Sector rotation: leading — Energy; improving (early rotation candidates) — Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate; fading/lagging — Technology, Communication, Health Care.
- Systematic tilts: overweight US Small Caps, Emerging Markets, US Dollar, Short Treasuries (cash-like), Broad Commodities, Crude Oil, US Large Caps, Intl Developed; underweight Inflation-Protected (TIPS), US Real Estate, High-Yield Bonds, IG Corporate Bonds, 7-10y Treasuries, Long Treasuries, EM Bonds.
- Breadth: 53% of stocks above their 200-day, 38% above their 50-day (green above 50%, red below).
- Oversold screen: 10 names ranked; cleanest buy setups (oversold inside an uptrend): BNY.
- Overbought screen: most stretched — PTC, P, SNPS, NTAP, FTNT. 8 of 10 are in long-term uptrends (momentum, not yet a sell signal); 2 are rallies inside downtrends.
- Under-loved and turning: Bitcoin, Health Care.
Green = gain / inflow, red = drop / outflow. Flow scores run −1 to +1.
Jump to: Forecast · Under-loved ideas · Data sources
Forecast analysis
Probabilistic, not a prediction: built from historical base rates and current volatility. Overlapping 3-month windows mean the true sample is smaller than the day count.
Base case (next 1–3 months): constructive. Trend, credit and volatility signals mostly agree. In this kind of regime, pullbacks toward the 50-day average have usually been bought rather than extended. Over roughly 12 years of history, when the S&P 500 was in today's setup (uptrend, momentum rising), it was higher three months later 78% of the time (median move +4.4%), versus 77% in all conditions. Based on current volatility, a typical (~68% likely) 3-month range is $737–$822 from today's $778.
Key levels to watch on the S&P 500 (SPY): 50-day average $767, 200-day average $720. Price is above both, so the trend is intact; a close below the 200-day would be the first real warning.
Warning flags: Consumer discretionary vs staples, 3-mo change; Small caps vs large caps, 3-mo change.
Supportive signals: S&P 500 vs 200-day average; 50-day vs 200-day average; VIX (expected volatility); Credit appetite (junk vs Treasuries), 3-mo change; Yield curve (10y − 2y); High-yield credit spread.
What would change this view: the S&P 500 closing below its 200-day average, the VIX holding above 25, high-yield spreads widening sharply, or breadth falling below 40% would shift the outlook toward risk-off.
Historical odds for the next 3 months, by asset class
For each asset: how often it was higher 3 months later when it was in the same trend/momentum setup it is in today, compared with all periods. “Edge” is the difference. The range is a ±1 standard deviation move from current volatility (~68% of outcomes).
| Ticker | Asset | Today's setup | Odds higher in 3 mo (this setup) | Odds (all periods) | Edge | Median 3-mo move (this setup) | Likely 3-mo range (~68%) | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ | US Real Estate | Downtrend, momentum falling | 71% | 63% | +8 pts | +4.0% | $85.49 – $96.91 | 12 yrs |
| GLD | Gold | Downtrend, momentum falling | 72% | 65% | +7 pts | +3.5% | $338.53 – $430.64 | 12 yrs |
| SHY | Short Treasuries (cash-like) | Uptrend, momentum rising | 75% | 69% | +7 pts | +0.4% | $80.62 – $81.75 | 12 yrs |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | Uptrend, momentum rising | 48% | 42% | +6 pts | -3.8% | $38.96 – $56.35 | 3 yrs |
| LQD | IG Corporate Bonds | Downtrend, momentum falling | 65% | 59% | +6 pts | +1.4% | $99.62 – $105.62 | 12 yrs |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | Uptrend, momentum rising | 67% | 62% | +5 pts | +3.7% | $59.22 – $74.14 | 12 yrs |
| SLV | Silver | Downtrend, momentum falling | 60% | 55% | +4 pts | +2.2% | $45.13 – $65.71 | 12 yrs |
| EFA | Intl Developed | Uptrend, momentum rising | 73% | 69% | +4 pts | +3.2% | $96.86 – $109.92 | 12 yrs |
| TLT | Long Treasuries | Downtrend, momentum falling | 55% | 51% | +4 pts | +0.7% | $74.19 – $81.95 | 12 yrs |
| UUP | US Dollar | Uptrend, momentum rising | 67% | 64% | +2 pts | +1.2% | $28.38 – $29.91 | 12 yrs |
| TIP | Inflation-Protected (TIPS) | Downtrend, momentum falling | 67% | 65% | +2 pts | +0.9% | $102.47 – $106.44 | 12 yrs |
| IEF | 7-10y Treasuries | Downtrend, momentum falling | 55% | 54% | +2 pts | +0.4% | $87.13 – $91.72 | 12 yrs |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | Uptrend, momentum rising | 61% | 60% | +0 pts | +2.4% | $30.07 – $37.04 | 12 yrs |
| SPY | US Large Caps | Uptrend, momentum rising | 78% | 77% | +0 pts | +4.4% | $737.08 – $821.91 | 12 yrs |
| IWM | US Small Caps | Uptrend, momentum rising | 64% | 65% | -1 pts | +2.7% | $261.00 – $297.33 | 12 yrs |
| USO | Crude Oil | Uptrend, momentum rising | 54% | 56% | -1 pts | +1.8% | $118.57 – $193.89 | 12 yrs |
| EMB | EM Bonds | Downtrend, momentum falling | 54% | 65% | -11 pts | +0.8% | $88.51 – $93.78 | 12 yrs |
| HYG | High-Yield Bonds | Downtrend, momentum falling | 59% | 76% | -17 pts | +1.7% | $76.07 – $78.60 | 12 yrs |
Risk regime dashboard
Each indicator scores +1 (risk-on), 0, or −1 (risk-off). The composite is their average. The Source column links to the underlying data.
| Indicator | Value | Reading | Score | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 vs 200-day average | +8.1% | Uptrend | +1 | Most trend-following funds cut equity exposure below the 200-day. | SPY |
| 50-day vs 200-day average | Golden cross | Bullish | +1 | Medium-term trend confirmation. | SPY |
| VIX (expected volatility) | 15.2 | Calm | +1 | High VIX = investors paying up for protection; forced de-risking risk. | ^VIX |
| Credit appetite (junk vs Treasuries), 3-mo change | +2.0% | Risk-on | +1 | Credit usually turns before stocks; falling ratio = lenders getting nervous. | HYG / IEF |
| Consumer discretionary vs staples, 3-mo change | -4.1% | Risk-off | -1 | Rising = investors betting on a healthy consumer. | XLY / XLP |
| Copper vs gold (growth vs fear), 3-mo change | +2.6% | Neutral | +0 | Copper tracks industrial demand; gold tracks fear and real-rate worries. | CPER / GLD |
| Small caps vs large caps, 3-mo change | -8.6% | Risk-off | -1 | Small caps lead when credit is easy and growth is broadening. | IWM / SPY |
| US dollar, 3-mo change | +2.6% | Stable | +0 | A surging dollar drains global liquidity and hurts EM and commodities. | UUP |
| Yield curve (10y − 2y) | +0.44 pts | Normal | +1 | Inversions have preceded most US recessions, often by 6–24 months. | FRED T10Y2Y |
| High-yield credit spread | 3.15% (+0.46 3-mo) | Tight (easy credit) | +1 | The extra yield junk borrowers pay; spikes signal credit stress. | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| Breadth: % of stocks above 200-day | 53% | Mixed | +0 | A rally carried by a few names is more fragile than a broad one. | S&P 500 constituents |
Time lapse: the past year, week by week
Press ▶ Play to watch the year unfold, or drag the slider to any week. Colors show each country's cumulative return in US dollars since the start; hover for that week's one-month return and flow pressure. The caption tracks the leaders and laggards as the year progresses.
Month-by-month country heatmap
The standard 'quilt' view used in institutional market reviews: rows are countries (best 12-month performer at the top), columns are months. Switch to 'Monthly flow pressure' to see when money was buying or selling each market — rotation shows up as color shifting between rows over time.
Capital flow pressure
Timeframe: Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 12, 2026 (253 trading days, the report period). Flow score (−1 to +1): of all the dollars traded in each asset's ETF over this period, the share traded on days the price closed up minus the share on days it closed down. +1 means every dollar traded on up days (steady buying), −1 means every dollar traded on down days (steady selling), and near 0 means balanced. It's an estimate from price and volume, not actual fund flows. Drag the slider or press ▶ Play to step through the past year: each step scores the month ending that week. Bars keep the same order and scale throughout; the "Report period" button returns to the full-period view.
Asset class flows, month by month
Each cell is one asset class's flow score for one calendar month (same −1 to +1 scale). Rows are in the same order as the chart above. Rotation shows up as color shifting between rows over time, for example a row turning red while another turns green.
Implied rotation map
Timeframe: Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 12, 2026 (253 trading days, the report period). Assets with net selling pressure (negative flow score) are on the left and assets with net buying pressure (positive) are on the right, each with its flow score. Band widths follow the scores. The links show relative pressure, not literal dollar transfers from one asset to another.
Asset class performance
Systematic asset-class tilts
Score = trend (above 200-day: ±1) + 6-month momentum (±1) + flow pressure (±1). Overweight ≥ +2, Underweight ≤ −2. This mirrors the trend/momentum rules many CTAs and tactical allocators use.
| Ticker | Asset | Period return | 6-mo momentum | 12-1 mo momentum | Above 200-day | Flow score | Signal score | Systematic tilt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | US Small Caps | +15.1% | +5.6% | +18.7% | Yes | +0.06 | +3 | Overweight |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | +26.4% | +9.1% | +28.3% | Yes | +0.05 | +3 | Overweight |
| UUP | US Dollar | +7.6% | +6.4% | +3.6% | Yes | +0.05 | +3 | Overweight |
| SHY | Short Treasuries (cash-like) | +1.3% | +0.2% | +1.6% | Yes | +0.08 | +3 | Overweight |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | +54.4% | +15.2% | +52.0% | Yes | +0.09 | +3 | Overweight |
| USO | Crude Oil | +115.7% | +18.0% | +113.6% | Yes | +0.17 | +3 | Overweight |
| SPY | US Large Caps | +18.7% | +14.0% | +14.8% | Yes | +0.02 | +2 | Overweight |
| EFA | Intl Developed | +14.8% | +2.0% | +17.4% | Yes | +0.01 | +2 | Overweight |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | -28.8% | +12.7% | -36.3% | Yes | -0.10 | +1 | Neutral |
| GLD | Gold | +1.0% | -12.3% | +9.1% | No | +0.09 | -1 | Neutral |
| SLV | Silver | +15.2% | -20.2% | +30.0% | No | +0.14 | -1 | Neutral |
| TIP | Inflation-Protected (TIPS) | -2.5% | -2.9% | -0.6% | No | -0.02 | -2 | Underweight |
| VNQ | US Real Estate | +6.5% | -0.8% | +9.3% | No | +0.01 | -2 | Underweight |
| HYG | High-Yield Bonds | +1.9% | -0.8% | +3.2% | No | -0.02 | -2 | Underweight |
| LQD | IG Corporate Bonds | -3.8% | -4.2% | -2.0% | No | -0.04 | -3 | Underweight |
| IEF | 7-10y Treasuries | -4.1% | -4.4% | -2.1% | No | -0.05 | -3 | Underweight |
| TLT | Long Treasuries | -9.9% | -8.0% | -5.5% | No | -0.08 | -3 | Underweight |
| EMB | EM Bonds | +0.7% | -2.6% | +2.9% | No | -0.03 | -3 | Underweight |
Sector rotation
Typical cycle runs clockwise: Improving → Leading → Weakening → Lagging. Improving sectors are early rotation candidates.
Factor leadership
Momentum and high beta leading = risk appetite; min-vol and quality leading = defense.
Market breadth
Below 20% on the 50-day line has historically marked washed-out conditions; above 80% marks euphoria.
Macro backdrop
Range buttons control all panels together. Click a line to open its source data. The M2 panel overlays the inflation rate (orange, right axis): money-supply surges have tended to show up in inflation roughly a year or more later.
Cross-asset correlations
Low or negative correlations = real diversification. Watch for stocks and bonds moving together (both red together hurts 60/40).
Oversold screen at a glance
Click a dot to open the stock on Yahoo Finance.
Top 10 oversold stocks still widely held by institutions
Score 0–100 combines percentile ranks across the candidates: how oversold (RSI, 20%), the 1-month drop versus the stock's sector ETF (20%; stock-specific drops tend to revert, sector-wide ones tend to persist), 12-month momentum skipping the last month (15%), distance from the 52-week high (5%), Piotroski F-score (10%), earnings-estimate revisions (10%), no fresh earnings miss (10%), open-market insider buying, weighted toward several insiders and larger buys (10%), low short interest (5%) and top institutions adding shares (5%). Missing data counts as average. Filters: at least the minimum institutional ownership and average dollar volume, and no weak (F-score 3 or less) or distressed (Altman Z below 1.81) financials. The weights are hand-set from published research, not fitted; see Method notes. Research links open SEC filings, Form 4 insider trades, holder lists and analyst estimates.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | RSI | 1-mo vs sector | 12-mo momentum | From 52w high | EPS estimate (90d) | Last earnings | Next earnings | Insider buyers / sellers (6m) | Short % float | Inst. owned (qtr change) | Quality | Analyst upside | Period return | Mkt cap | Top holders | Score (0–100) | Research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | Healthcare | 29.9 | -13.0% vs XLV | +47.2% | -14.9% | +7.1% | Jul 30: +27.5% vs est. | Oct 29 | 0 / 2 | 2.2% | 85% (+9.9%) | F 9/9 · Z 2.3 | +14.6% | +37.6% | $117.0B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, State Street Corporation | 70 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| MOS | The Mosaic Company | Basic Materials | 23.0 | -23.6% vs XLB | -21.9% | -39.3% | -52.9% | Aug 04: -7.1% vs est. | Nov 03 | 0 / 1 | 12.5% | 98% (+11.8%) | F 8/9 · Z 1.8 | +42.6% | -37.5% | $5.9B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, AQR Capital Management, LLC | 62 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | Technology | 36.6 | -18.0% vs XLK | +274.3% | -48.0% | +12.7% | Aug 05: +7.9% vs est. | Oct 22 | 0 / 7 | 5.5% | 89% (-0.9%) | F 7/9 · Z 22.0 | +72.8% | +227.2% | $145.8B | Blackrock Inc., FMR, LLC, Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 61 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| BNY | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | Financial Services | 28.5 | -8.6% vs XLF | +55.1% | -13.2% | +3.4% | Jul 15: +10.8% vs est. | Oct 15 ⚠ in 3d | 0 / 6 | 1.4% | 87% (-5.0%) | F 6/9 · Z — | +14.2% | +37.1% | $97.0B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, State Street Corporation | 59 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | Technology | 38.7 | -13.6% vs XLK | +1159.5% | -36.2% | +5.1% | Aug 05: +13.7% vs est. | Oct 29 | 0 / 6 | 5.3% | 82% (+57.6%) | F 8/9 · Z 22.7 | +45.8% | +1007.5% | $213.4B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, FMR, LLC | 59 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| STX | Seagate Technology Holdings plc | Technology | 37.9 | -13.5% vs XLK | +276.4% | -30.7% | +30.7% | Jul 28: +12.2% vs est. | Oct 27 | 0 / 9 | 3.5% | 85% (+0.4%) | F 8/9 · Z 15.3 | +51.1% | +247.1% | $173.5B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, State Street Corporation | 58 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 35.1 | -16.4% vs XLY | -11.5% | -28.8% | +1.1% | Jul 29: +3.1% vs est. | Oct 28 | 0 / 1 | 3.4% | 93% (+2.7%) | F 7/9 · Z 5.9 | +45.0% | -26.2% | $38.2B | Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 58 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| ALB | Albemarle Corporation | Basic Materials | 28.3 | -14.4% vs XLB | +23.2% | -54.3% | -7.7% | Aug 05: +15.7% vs est. | Nov 04 | 0 / 1 | 11.4% | 102% (+66.6%) | F 6/9 · Z 1.9 | +72.0% | +2.9% | $11.6B | Capital World Investors, Blackrock Inc., Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 57 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | Technology | 40.4 | -19.1% vs XLK | +23.9% | -17.2% | +0.5% | Jul 28: +4.9% vs est. | Nov 03 | 0 / 0 | 29.3% | 84% (+371.8%) | F 6/9 · Z 6.9 | -0.1% | +6.5% | $17.7B | Blackrock Inc., Pzena Investment Management LLC, Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 55 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| INCY | Incyte Corporation | Healthcare | 31.1 | -11.3% vs XLV | +43.3% | -13.3% | -0.4% | Jul 28: +43.7% vs est. | Oct 29 | 0 / 6 | 8.4% | 103% (-0.9%) | F 7/9 · Z 9.8 | +14.7% | +32.9% | $22.9B | Baker Bros. Advisors, LP, Blackrock Inc., Dodge & Cox Inc. | 53 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
Trade plan (risk-sized)
Example sizing for a hypothetical $100,000 portfolio; risking 1.00% per trade ($1,000); stop = 2.0× ATR below price; max 10% of portfolio per position. Target = the 50- or 20-day average (where mean-reversion trades usually take profit) or 2R if price is already above both.
| Ticker | Setup | Last | Stop | Target | Reward/Risk | Shares | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | SPECULATIVE: oversold in a downtrend; wait for a higher low before buying | $57.36 | $54.13 | $63.39 | 1.9R | 174 | $9,981 |
| MOS | SPECULATIVE: oversold in a downtrend; wait for a higher low before buying | $18.69 | $16.81 | $23.13 | 2.4R | 531 | $9,927 |
| WDC | AVOID FOR NOW: weak trend and not deeply oversold | $388.17 | $338.94 | $454.40 | 1.3R | 20 | $7,763 |
| BNY | BUY SETUP: oversold dip inside a long-term uptrend (classic mean reversion) · Earnings due Oct 15: wait for the report or use a smaller position | $143.09 | $138.13 | $155.86 | 2.6R | 69 | $9,873 |
| SNDK | WATCH: pullback in uptrend; buy on a close back above the 20-day average | $1,490.82 | $1,323.34 | $1,588.02 | 0.6R | 5 | $7,454 |
| STX | WATCH: pullback in uptrend; buy on a close back above the 20-day average | $757.53 | $658.84 | $852.76 | 1.0R | 10 | $7,575 |
| CMG | AVOID FOR NOW: weak trend and not deeply oversold | $30.18 | $27.58 | $34.25 | 1.6R | 331 | $9,990 |
| ALB | SPECULATIVE: oversold in a downtrend; wait for a higher low before buying | $97.99 | $91.13 | $121.02 | 3.4R | 102 | $9,995 |
| SWKS | WATCH: pullback in uptrend; buy on a close back above the 20-day average | $75.71 | $66.82 | $85.76 | 1.1R | 112 | $8,480 |
| INCY | WATCH: pullback in uptrend; buy on a close back above the 20-day average | $112.60 | $106.43 | $122.47 | 1.6R | 88 | $9,908 |
Overbought screen at a glance
Click a dot to open the stock on Yahoo Finance.
Top 10 overbought stocks (most stretched)
Score 0–100 combines percentile ranks across the candidates: how overbought (RSI, 20%), distance above the 50-day average in ATRs (15%), the 1-month gain versus the sector ETF (15%), the biggest one-day jump in the last month (10%; lottery-like spikes tend to fade), weak 12-month momentum (10%), distance below the 52-week high (5%; stocks at new highs tend to keep going), falling earnings estimates (10%), no fresh earnings beat (5%), high short interest (5%), several insiders selling with none buying (5%) and top institutions trimming (5%). Stocks with RSI 65+ always rank first. Overbought is not a sell signal by itself: in strong uptrends RSI can stay above 70 for weeks. Use this list to avoid chasing, tighten stops, or take partial profits.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | RSI | Above 50-day | Above 200-day | Last month | Biggest 1-day gain (1 mo) | 1-mo vs sector | 12-mo momentum | From 52w high | EPS estimate (90d) | Last earnings | Next earnings | Insider buyers / sellers (6m) | Short % float | Inst. owned (qtr change) | Analyst upside | Fwd P/E | Period return | Score (0–100) | Research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTC | PTC Inc. | Technology | 80.5 | +29.4% | +33.3% | +48.4% | +33.5% | +43.5% vs XLK | -35.2% | -5.7% | +1.5% | Jul 29: +1.3% vs est. | Nov 11 | 0 / 2 | 8.5% | 108% (+6.1%) | +3.6% | 21.8 | -4.2% | 88 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| P | Everpure, Inc. | Technology | 79.6 | +38.1% | +89.4% | +56.4% | +11.2% | +51.6% vs XLK | +4.9% | -0.6% | +14.2% | Aug 26: +20.7% vs est. | Dec 01 | 0 / 7 | 3.5% | 85% (+0.1%) | -1.6% | 36.3 | +66.0% | 79 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| SNPS | Synopsys, Inc. | Technology | 70.8 | +19.1% | +12.7% | +26.5% | +12.8% | +21.7% vs XLK | -18.0% | -6.0% | +2.5% | Aug 26: +6.5% vs est. | Dec 09 | 0 / 5 | 2.6% | 93% (-1.0%) | +13.5% | 27.0 | +12.2% | 78 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | Technology | 75.0 | +19.4% | +67.8% | +19.5% | +5.2% | +14.7% vs XLK | +67.8% | +0.0% | +12.4% | May 28: +7.0% vs est. | Dec 01 | 0 / 8 | 5.5% | 102% (-2.9%) | -10.9% | 21.2 | +103.0% | 69 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| FTNT | Fortinet, Inc. | Technology | 70.0 | +15.0% | +58.6% | +23.8% | +9.0% | +19.0% vs XLK | +81.1% | -0.8% | +9.4% | Jul 29: +20.0% vs est. | Oct 28 | 0 / 4 | 2.1% | 71% (-1.6%) | -14.7% | 51.5 | +129.5% | 68 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Technology | 73.0 | +15.9% | +35.8% | +23.8% | +5.2% | +18.9% vs XLK | -9.8% | -1.0% | +9.7% | Aug 03: +17.1% vs est. | Nov 02 | 0 / 7 | 2.6% | 65% (+3.8%) | -1.8% | 88.2 | +16.8% | 68 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | Healthcare | 66.6 | +52.5% | +193.2% | +49.8% | +14.2% | +45.8% vs XLV | +423.0% | -4.1% | +3.2% | Jul 31: +4.4% vs est. | Nov 05 | 0 / 6 | 9.4% | 80% (+6.5%) | -43.1% | -50.2 | +706.6% | 67 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Energy | 75.0 | +20.8% | +71.3% | +16.4% | +6.3% | +14.5% vs XLE | +114.6% | -0.5% | +86.9% | Aug 04: +27.1% vs est. | Nov 03 | 0 / 5 | 2.9% | 80% (+0.6%) | -11.0% | 8.8 | +155.5% | 65 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| CCI | Crown Castle Inc. | Real Estate | 73.3 | +10.0% | -0.7% | +7.4% | +15.6% | +10.4% vs XLRE | -18.9% | -14.8% | +3.8% | Jul 22: +35.3% vs est. | Oct 21 | 1 / 1 | 2.7% | 102% (-0.9%) | +18.0% | 27.5 | -12.4% | 64 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Healthcare | 68.6 | +10.6% | -3.2% | +16.1% | +3.7% | +12.1% vs XLV | -16.8% | -27.7% | +3.7% | Jul 16: +12.0% vs est. | Oct 20 | 0 / 6 | 2.1% | 89% (+0.0%) | +11.5% | 35.1 | -1.6% | 63 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
Overbought plan: protect gains, wait for better entries
Trailing stop = the higher of 2.0× ATR below price or just under the 20-day average; a close below it means the run is cooling. Pullback zone = the 20-day average, where momentum stocks most often find buyers. Distance to the 50-day shows how much air sits under the price if it fully mean-reverts.
| Ticker | Signal | Last | Trailing stop (holders) | Pullback buy zone (20-day) | 50-day average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTC | EXTREMELY STRETCHED: trim or tighten stops; new buyers wait for the pullback zone | $194.06 | $180.27 | $154.73 (-20.3%) | $149.95 (-22.7%) |
| P | EXTREMELY STRETCHED: trim or tighten stops; new buyers wait for the pullback zone | $153.57 | $139.82 | $127.58 (-16.9%) | $111.23 (-27.6%) |
| SNPS | STRONG MOMENTUM: hold with a trailing stop; don't add until it cools | $502.72 | $461.56 | $442.10 (-12.1%) | $422.12 (-16.0%) |
| NTAP | MOMENTUM AT NEW HIGHS: leaders near highs tend to keep going; hold with a trailing stop | $237.63 | $221.31 | $210.61 (-11.4%) | $199.02 (-16.2%) |
| FTNT | MOMENTUM AT NEW HIGHS: leaders near highs tend to keep going; hold with a trailing stop | $193.22 | $182.64 | $179.97 (-6.9%) | $168.00 (-13.1%) |
| PLTR | STRONG MOMENTUM: hold with a trailing stop; don't add until it cools | $207.00 | $194.19 | $188.68 (-8.8%) | $178.66 (-13.7%) |
| MRNA | STRONG MOMENTUM: hold with a trailing stop; don't add until it cools | $215.68 | $184.50 | $186.50 (-13.5%) | $141.48 (-34.4%) |
| MPC | MOMENTUM AT NEW HIGHS: leaders near highs tend to keep going; hold with a trailing stop | $460.86 | $427.97 | $417.16 (-9.5%) | $381.64 (-17.2%) |
| CCI | RALLY IN A DOWNTREND: bounce into resistance; avoid chasing, holders consider selling into it | $80.07 | $75.00 | $70.57 (-11.9%) | $72.79 (-9.1%) |
| ISRG | RALLY IN A DOWNTREND: bounce into resistance; avoid chasing, holders consider selling into it | $428.71 | $406.72 | $403.18 (-6.0%) | $387.60 (-9.6%) |
Under-loved asset classes, countries & sectors to investigate
Out of favor = weak 12-month returns (bottom 40%) and/or net selling pressure. “Turning” = price back above its 50-day average and up over the last month: the point where contrarian buyers usually start researching. Names still falling stay on the watchlist until they turn.
| Ticker | Market | Type | Status | 12-mo return | Last month | Flow score | Why it's under-loved | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | Bitcoin | Asset class | TURNING: research now | -31.8% | +7.0% | -0.10 | -32% over 12 months (bottom 3% of 61 markets tracked), -34% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Already back above its 200-day; pullbacks toward the 50-day ($43.29) are the entry zone. |
| XLV | Health Care | US sector | TURNING: research now | +20.8% | +4.0% | -0.01 | +21% over 12 months (bottom 74% of 61 markets tracked), -2% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Already back above its 200-day; pullbacks toward the 50-day ($168.65) are the entry zone. |
| MCHI | China | Country | Still falling: watchlist | -18.4% | -1.5% | -0.11 | -18% over 12 months (bottom 5% of 61 markets tracked), -21% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($56.33). |
| EIDO | Indonesia | Country | Still falling: watchlist | -32.0% | -8.5% | -0.07 | -32% over 12 months (bottom 2% of 61 markets tracked), -47% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($14.39). |
| INDA | India | Country | Still falling: watchlist | -12.2% | -4.6% | -0.03 | -12% over 12 months (bottom 7% of 61 markets tracked), -21% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($49.63). |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | US sector | Still falling: watchlist | -3.6% | -0.3% | -0.00 | -4% over 12 months (bottom 16% of 61 markets tracked), -9% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($115.63). |
| TLT | Long Treasuries | Asset class | Still falling: watchlist | -8.5% | -3.2% | -0.08 | -9% over 12 months (bottom 11% of 61 markets tracked), -16% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($83.52). |
| VNM | Vietnam | Country | Still falling: watchlist | -11.3% | -5.2% | -0.07 | -11% over 12 months (bottom 8% of 61 markets tracked), -16% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($18.11). |
| EPHE | Philippines | Country | Still falling: watchlist | -6.5% | -4.9% | -0.11 | -6% over 12 months (bottom 13% of 61 markets tracked), -20% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($24.79). |
| IEF | 7-10y Treasuries | Asset class | Still falling: watchlist | -3.5% | -1.4% | -0.05 | -3% over 12 months (bottom 18% of 61 markets tracked), -6% from its 3-year high; sellers have dominated trading | Confirmation: a close above the 200-day average ($92.71). |
Under-loved stocks to investigate
S&P 500 laggards (bottom 30% over 12 months) that have started recovering, ranked by analyst upside, insider buying and institutional ownership. Read the filings first: some stocks are cheap for good reasons.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Status | 12-mo return | Last month | From 52w high | Inst. owned | Insider net shares (6m) | Analyst upside | Fwd P/E | Research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMB | Trimble Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -24.6% | +3.5% | -28.5% | 103% | +375,914 | +33.0% | 14.5 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies, Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -33.2% | +0.6% | -34.7% | 108% | +2,817 | +24.8% | 22.1 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -24.5% | +10.2% | -25.3% | 102% | +0 | +31.3% | 16.4 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| ZTS | Zoetis Inc. | Healthcare | TURNING: back above 50-day | -46.5% | +3.1% | -48.0% | 100% | +0 | +27.6% | 11.5 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| CI | The Cigna Group | Healthcare | TURNING: back above 50-day | -5.4% | +0.9% | -6.4% | 92% | +14,214 | +20.8% | 8.4 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| WDAY | Workday, Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -20.1% | +2.4% | -22.6% | 112% | +175,011 | +9.3% | 14.5 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | Utilities | TURNING: back above 50-day | -23.1% | +8.3% | -23.4% | 92% | -141,169 | +31.0% | 15.5 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| PODD | Insulet Corporation | Healthcare | Still weak: watchlist | -56.8% | +4.8% | -60.1% | 107% | +20,752 | +20.9% | 17.9 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -23.1% | +6.6% | -25.4% | 85% | +158,949 | +4.6% | 28.5 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
| IT | Gartner, Inc. | Technology | TURNING: back above 50-day | -20.2% | +8.6% | -24.5% | 120% | +888 | -3.1% | 11.8 | Filings · Insider trades · Holders · Analysts |
Data sources
- Prices, volume, ownership, insider summaries, analyst targets: Yahoo Finance (via the open-source yfinance library). Every ticker in this report links to its Yahoo page.
- Macro series (FRED, St. Louis Fed): T10Y2Y · T10Y3M · BAMLH0A0HYM2 · DFF · WALCL · M2SL · DTWEXBGS · CPIAUCSL
- Company filings & insider trades: SEC EDGAR — Form 10-K/10-Q (financials) and Form 4 (insider buys/sells).
- Institutional holdings (13F): SEC 13F overview
- Congressional trades (optional): Quiver Quantitative
- Stock universe: S&P 500 constituents (Wikipedia)
Method notes & limitations
- Capital flows are estimated from signed dollar volume on liquid ETFs (dollars traded on up days minus down days). True fund-flow data (ETF creations/redemptions, EPFR, 13F aggregates) is paid; this proxy tracks it reasonably but not perfectly.
- Institutional ownership comes from 13F filings via Yahoo, which lag by up to ~45 days after each quarter.
- “Public figures” = company insiders (officers/directors filing Form 4) and, optionally, members of Congress (STOCK Act disclosures via Quiver, which can lag up to 45 days).
- Stock screen scores combine factors with published evidence: short-term reversal measured against the sector (Da, Liu & Schaumburg 2014), 12-month momentum (Jegadeesh & Titman 1993), the 52-week-high effect (George & Hwang 2004), Piotroski F-score (2000) and Altman Z-score (1968), estimate revisions (Chan, Jegadeesh & Lakonishok 1996), post-earnings drift (Bernard & Thomas 1989), insider purchases (Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012), short interest (Asquith, Pathak & Ritter 2005) and lottery-like spikes (Bali, Cakici & Whitelaw 2011). The evidence comes from diversified portfolios held for months, and many of these effects have weakened since publication; the weights are judgment calls, not fitted values. Backtest before relying on them.
- Oversold is not the same as cheap, and under-loved is not the same as undervalued. Trend filters separate dips in uptrends from falling knives, but no screen replaces reading the filings.
- Forecasts are base rates from history plus current volatility. Markets change; past odds are a starting point for judgment, not a guarantee.
- Backtest any rule before trusting it with money. Past relationships break, and free data has gaps.
This report is generated by a mechanical research tool and is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence and consider a licensed advisor for decisions about your money.